The chart below shows that for every $1.00 spent on state and local government services, the economy benefits by an estimated $1.39. That is an immediate 39% return on the dollar. By comparison, for every dollar spent on most tax cuts, the economy loses money. For example, $1 spent on corporate tax cuts returns just 51 cents—a loss of almost half of every dollar spent.
Note: The bang for the buck is estimated by the one-year $ change in GDP for a given $ reduction in federal tax revenue or increase in spending. Figures presented are for recessionary or early cycle expansion periods in the business cycle.
Source: Moody’s Analytics, “Struggling Through: Household Finances In the Pandemic,” (Oct. 12, 2020), Table 1, p. 4. https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2020/struggling-through-household-finances-in-the-pandemic.pdf
The payroll tax holiday for employees estimate is data behind a paywall that was prepared for AFSCME in Moody’s Analytics, “U.S. Fiscal Multipliers and the Next Recession,” (Feb. 2019). http://www.afscmeinfocenter.org/blog/2019/04/u-s-fiscal-multipliers-and-the-next-recession.htm