For millions of American families, the Trump-GOP hike in health-insurance premiums set for the end of the year will far outweigh any minor tax cut they may receive from President Trump & Congressional Republicans’ Big Ugly Law. The GOP has chosen to shut down the government rather than prevent premiums from rising 30% on the more than 24 million Americans enrolled in the Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplace.
An analysis conducted by Americans of Tax Fairness, based on data from the Institute on Taxation & Economic Policy and Center on Budget Policy Priorities, finds that for the tens of millions of families the small benefit of the Trump tax cut would be stolen away through increased health insurance costs.
The $4.5 trillion law overwhelmingly benefits the wealthy, with households making over a million dollars in 2027 due to get a tax cut that year of almost $100,000 on average. Meanwhile the median family is estimated to receive $1,500 next year. As a result of the policy choices to prioritize billionaires over families is if you are a single 45-year old earning $62k would pay $1,470 in higher health insurance premiums due to the expiration of the Affordable Care Act tax credits, on average completely wiping out any potential benefits.
The situation is even worse if you are an older American or have a family. It is projected that a 60-year-old couple earning $82k is going to be faced with $18,400 in higher healthcare costs, and a family of four earning $126k will be hit with $8,400 in increased insurance premiums. This dire situation for millions of American families is true across the board in every state, as shown in the chart below. At a time when the costs from groceries to childcare to utilities are rising for millions of workers and families across the country, this spiking of healthcare costs will further devastate hard-working people.
| List of States | Median Tax Cut (2026) | 45-year-old individual earning $62,000 | 60-year-old couple, earning $82,000 | Family of four, earning $126,000 |
| Average Health Insurance Premium Cost Hike | ||||
| Alabama | $1,040 | $1,984 | $20,297 | $8,510 |
| Alaska | $2,490 | $7,582 | $44,556 | $26,700 |
| Arizona | $1,250 | $289 | $13,927 | $5,020 |
| Arkansas | $1,210 | $940 | $16,373 | $6,862 |
| California | $1,650 | $1,672 | $19,125 | $8,933 |
| Colorado | $1,720 | $1,008 | $16,628 | $7,054 |
| Connecticut | $2,150 | $4,126 | $28,350 | $15,878 |
| Delaware | $1,590 | $1,970 | $20,246 | $9,778 |
| District of Columbia | $1,750 | $3,131 | $22,894 | $12,467 |
| Florida | $1,140 | $1,713 | $19,278 | $9,049 |
| Georgia | $1,140 | $1,414 | $18,157 | $8,205 |
| Hawaii | $1,840 | $622 | $17,117 | $6,594 |
| Idaho | $1,430 | $642 | $15,252 | $6,018 |
| Illinois | $2,020 | $1,157 | $17,188 | $7,476 |
| Indiana | $1,670 | $0 | $12,499 | $3,946 |
| Iowa | $1,470 | $547 | $14,895 | $5,749 |
| Kansas | $1,290 | $1,686 | $19,176 | $8,972 |
| Kentucky | $1,160 | $723 | $15,557 | $6,248 |
| Louisiana | $1,080 | $1,835 | $19,737 | $9,394 |
| Maine | $1,490 | $2,133 | $20,858 | $10,238 |
| Maryland | $1,890 | $0 | $11,633 | $3,294 |
| Massachusetts | $2,130 | $548 | $11,244 | $5,802 |
| Michigan | $1,530 | $208 | $13,621 | $4,790 |
| Minnesota | $1,890 | $0 | $11,531 | $4,069 |
| Mississippi | $860 | $1,306 | $17,749 | $6,714 |
| Missouri | $1,290 | $1,360 | $17,953 | $8,051 |
| Montana | $1,360 | $2,242 | $21,266 | $10,545 |
| Nebraska | $1,550 | $2,865 | $23,610 | $12,310 |
| Nevada | $1,290 | $343 | $14,130 | $5,174 |
| New Hampshire | $2,660 | $0 | $9,594 | $1,759 |
| New Jersey | $1,930 | $1,401 | $18,106 | $8,166 |
| New Mexico | $1,080 | $1,713 | $19,278 | $9,049 |
| New York | $1,670 | $4,210 | $11,990 | $16,308 |
| North Carolina | $1,220 | $1,604 | $18,870 | $8,742 |
| North Dakota | $1,760 | $2,011 | $20,399 | $9,893 |
| Ohio | $1,540 | $709 | $15,507 | $6,209 |
| Oklahoma | $990 | $1,523 | $18,565 | $8,511 |
| Oregon | $1,400 | $1,645 | $19,023 | $7,612 |
| Pennsylvania | $1,590 | $981 | $16,526 | $6,977 |
| Rhode Island | $1,500 | $492 | $14,691 | $5,596 |
| South Carolina | $1,150 | $1,116 | $17,036 | $7,360 |
| South Dakota | $1,500 | $3,123 | $24,579 | $13,039 |
| Tennessee | $1,160 | $1,726 | $19,329 | $9,087 |
| Texas | $1,320 | $1,360 | $17,953 | $8,051 |
| Utah | $1,570 | $2,488 | $19,659 | $9,457 |
| Vermont | $1,530 | $10,054 | $23,678 | $32,350 |
| Virginia | $1,780 | $0 | $11,990 | $3,562 |
| Washington | $2,260 | $614 | $15,150 | $5,941 |
| West Virginia | $1,020 | $7,190 | $39,869 | $24,549 |
| Wisconsin | $1,600 | $1,442 | $18,259 | $8,281 |
| Wyoming | $1,770 | $6,540 | $37,422 | $22,707 |