Two dozen Republican House members won their seats by margins smaller than the number of constituents who could be affected by proposed cuts to federal jobs, Medicaid, and food assistance, according to a new analysis by Americans for Tax Fairness (ATF). Swing-district Republicans now face a choice between loyalty to the Trump-Musk agenda or protecting their constituents’ interests and their own political futures.

Congressional Republicans recently pushed a tax-and-spending plan through the House Budget Committee that would cut at least $2 trillion from public services to partially pay for a $4.5 trillion tax cut that mostly benefits the rich and corporations. This “reconciliation” bill now goes to the House floor where dozens of Republicans in vulnerable congressional districts will have a big decision to make. Will they continue to support the extremist Trump-Musk fiscal agenda–which includes firing hundreds of thousands of federal workers, taking health coverage away from millions of children and families, and raising grocery prices for millions of Americans–or will they stand up for tens of thousands of their constituents who will suffer from these policies?  

In this analysis, we examine the most competitive Republican districts to see how many of their own constituents they would be willing to harm just to give billionaires like Elon Musk and Donald Trump another tax cut.

Source: Congressional Research Service, Cook Political Report

Source: American Community Survey, Cook Political Report

Source: American Community Survey, Cook Political Report

Following is more information on some of the Republican House members who will need to decide if they’ll put their loyalty to the Trump-Musk regime over their political future.

Juan Ciscomani (Arizona 6th)

• Won his last election by 10,822 votes (2.5% margin). Joe Biden won this district in 2020.

• There are an estimated 14,803 federal workers in his district, 4.3% of the district’s total workforce.

• There are 31,833 children (21% of all children), 58,431 working-age adults (13%), and 12,394 seniors (6%) who are covered by Medicaid or CHIP in his district.

• There are 28,793 households receiving food aid (SNAP) in his district (8% of all residents), of which over a third contain children and over half include someone with a disability.

David Valadao (California 22nd)

• Won his last election by 11,461 votes (6.8% margin). Joe Biden won this district in 2020.

• There are 165,584 children (67% of all children), 172,112  working age adults (38%), and 24,156  seniors (32%) who are covered by Medicaid or CHIP in his district. Valadao’s district has the highest share of under-65 residents on Medicaid/CHIP of any Congressional district in the nation.

• There are 60,580 households receiving SNAP benefits in his district (28% of all residents), of which over half contain children and nearly half include someone with a disability.

Gabe Evans (Colorado 8th)

• Won his last election by 2,449 votes (0.7% margin). Joe Biden won this district in 2020
• There are an estimated 7,318 federal workers in his district, 1.8% of the district’s total workforce.
• There are 69,726 children (37% of all children), 60,000 working age adults (12%), and 7,808 seniors (9%) who are covered by Medicaid or CHIP in his district.
• There are 29,494 households receiving SNAP benefits in his district (11% of all residents), of which over half contain children and over half include someone with a disability.

Mariannette Miller-Meeks (Iowa 1st)

• Won her last election by 799 votes (0.2% margin).
• There are an estimated 10,633 federal workers in her district, 2.6% of the district’s total workforce.
• There are 50,504 children (27% of all children), 58,278 working age adults (11%), and 6,674 seniors (5%) who are covered by Medicaid or CHIP in her district.
• There are 28,793 households receiving SNAP benefits in her district (9% of all residents), of which nearly half contain children and over half include someone with a disability. 

Don Bacon (Nebraska 2nd)

• Won his last election by 5,829 votes (1.9% margin). Joe Biden won this district in 2020 and Kamala Harris in 2024.
• There are an estimated 8,621 federal workers in his district, 2.4% of the district’s total workforce.
• There are 48,933 children (27% of all children), 35,443 working age adults (8%), and 7,176 seniors (8%) who are covered by Medicaid or CHIP in his district.
• There are 23,383 households receiving SNAP benefits in his district (9% of all residents), of which over half contain children and over half include someone with a disability.

Ryan Mackenzie (Pennsylvania 7th)

• Won his last election by 4,062 votes (1% margin). Joe Biden won this district in 2020.
• There are an estimated 4,345 federal workers in his district, 1.1% of the district’s total workforce.
• There are 64,032 children (37% of all children), 67,520 working age adults (14%), and 10,258 seniors (7%) who are covered by Medicaid or CHIP in his district.
• There are 40,011 households receiving SNAP benefits in his district (13% of all residents), of which nearly half contain children and nearly half include someone with a disability.

Rob Bresnahan (Pennsylvania 8th)

• Won his last election by 6,252 votes (1.6% margin). 
• There are an estimated 10,214 federal workers in his district, 2.9% of the district’s total workforce.
• There are 70,321 children (44% of all children), 86,026 working age adults (18%), and 11,296 seniors (7%) who are covered by Medicaid or CHIP in his district.
• There are 58,869 households receiving SNAP benefits in his district (13% of all residents), of which nearly half contain children and over half include someone with a disability.

Scott Perry (Pennsylvania 10th)

• Won his last election by 5,133 votes (1.3% margin). 
• There are an estimated 12,963 federal workers in his district, 3.2% of the district’s total workforce.
• There are 53,069 children (29% of all children), 53,196 working age adults (11%), and 7,108 seniors (5%) who are covered by Medicaid or CHIP in his district
• There are 38,134 households receiving SNAP benefits in his district (12% of all residents), of which nearly half contain children and over half include someone with a disability.

Jen Kiggans (Virginia 2nd)

• Won his last election by 15,732 votes (3.8% margin). Joe Biden won this district in 2020.
• There are an estimated 30,707 federal workers in his district, 8.5% of the total workforce. Kiggans has the highest share of federal employees in his district of any Republican, and the 11th highest overall.  
• There are 33,065 children (18% of all children), 40,180 working age adults (8%), and 5,251 seniors (4%) who are covered by Medicaid or CHIP in his district
• There are 24,280 households receiving SNAP benefits in his district (8% of all residents), of which nearly half contain children and nearly half include someone with a disability.

ATF’s full analysis of all congressional districts can be found here.